- Security
Political analyst Christian Moleka recently provided a comprehensive assessment of Kinshasa’s military and diplomatic strategies concerning the ongoing conflict in the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Speaking during a live online discussion organized by Stanis Bujakera Tshiamala, Moleka highlighted that despite a substantial investment of 4.5 billion dollars allocated between 2022 and 2025 under the military programming law, tangible results on the ground have fallen short of expectations. He noted that the FARDC (Forces Armées de la République Démocratique du Congo) have struggled to regain the upper hand against the AFC/M23 (Alliance Fleuve Congo/March 23 Movement) since the capture of Bunagana in 2022.
On the diplomatic front, the analyst acknowledged several notable achievements. These include the European Union’s imposition of sanctions against Rwanda, a discernible shift in how the conflict is perceived in Washington, and the unanimous adoption of a resolution by the United Nations Security Council. However, Moleka underscored a persistent disconnect between these diplomatic triumphs and the harsh realities on the battlefield. He referenced a UN Group of Experts report, which indicated that the M23 had expanded its occupied territory by an additional 35% since the Doha agreements. Moleka concluded that these diplomatic tools have only yielded “partial and temporary results.”
When questioned about the primary factor contributing to this mixed outcome, Christian Moleka offered an unequivocal response: “I would say it lies more with the military.” He drew an analogy between diplomacy and the war effort, likening them to a two-person dance. “One cannot maintain a strong diplomatic stance without a robust military component to back it up,” he asserted. The analyst warned that the gains secured on the international stage could ultimately undermine Kinshasa’s position if not supported by a more advantageous military balance of power.
Moleka concluded his analysis by placing the conflict within a broader historical context, describing it as a “war of attrition” that has spanned three decades. He emphasized that in such a prolonged struggle, “it is not intensity that matters, but the capacity to endure over time.” This enduring challenge, he suggested, applies equally to the diplomatic efforts of the Democratic Republic of Congo and to the capabilities of its armed forces.
