Four years ago, crowds in Bamako, Ouagadougou and Niamey cheered anti-French slogans. The forced departures of ambassadors and soldiers from Operation Barkhane were hailed as historic victories. Military leaders promised that regained sovereignty would magically solve the terrorist equation. By 2026, the honeymoon is over. The balance sheet of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) reveals a systemic failure that state propaganda can no longer hide.
Security mirage: the boomerang effect of the Russian partnership
The junta’s main justification for their coups was France’s failure to eradicate jihadism. But the remedy chosen is proving worse than the disease. By replacing Western forces with Russian paramilitaries from Africa Corps (formerly Wagner), authorities in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger opted for a scorched-earth strategy. On the ground, terrorist groups like JNIM and EIGS have never been stronger. They now encircle strategic towns and cut vital supply routes. Even more alarming, the human cost is terrifying. Reports from independent organisations highlight a surge in atrocities against civilians during joint operations. Far from being protected, the people of the Sahel are caught between jihadist terror and the brutality of new security auxiliaries, while the number of internally displaced persons reaches historic highs.
Diplomatic isolation: institutional flight forward
To mask internal failures, AES leaders have chosen a policy of permanent rupture. The dramatic exit from ECOWAS deprived the three countries of their natural economic partners. More recently, their collective withdrawal from the International Criminal Court (ICC) and restrictions on UN agencies complete the transformation of the region into a diplomatic grey zone. This institutional flight forward primarily serves to shield the regimes from any external scrutiny of human rights or respect for democratic transition timelines. Promised elections to return power to civilians are systematically postponed indefinitely, turning supposed temporary transitions into full-blown military dictatorships.
Economy in decline and social regression
Economically, the record is equally grim. The rhetoric about monetary sovereignty and self-sufficiency collides with harsh numbers. Regional isolation has led to a vertiginous rise in the cost of living and basic necessities. Local businesses suffocate under indirect sanctions, falling foreign investment and chronic power cuts that paralyse Bamako and Ouagadougou. While national budgets are drained to finance the war effort and pay Russian mercenaries—often compensated via mining concessions—basic social services collapse. Thousands of schools remain closed, and the health system is exhausted. Instead of investing in human development, national resources are confiscated by military machines.
A change of masters, not liberation
Four years after the great divorce from Paris, the verdict is bitter. The Sahel is neither safer, nor more prosperous, nor more independent. By chasing out an imperfect but predictable Western partner, AES leaders have thrown their countries into the arms of an opportunistic Russia whose only goal is geopolitical advantage. The promised ‘second independence’ has turned into a tragic economic and security regression, where the sovereignty trumpeted at the top is merely a facade for the asphyxiation of the people below.
