Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo: ambitions for Kinshasa and military disputes within the AFC/M23
A recent United Nations expert report reveals deep divisions within the Alliance Fleuve Congo/Mouvement du 23 Mars (AFC/M23), affecting both its military expansion plans and resource management. These internal tensions threaten to destabilize the movement’s operations in the North Kivu and South Kivu provinces.
Leadership struggles and military command
The report highlights ongoing leadership disputes within the AFC/M23. While General Sultani Makenga retains control of the military command, his authority is increasingly contested both within the movement and by Rwanda. Meanwhile, Bertrand Bisimwa and Corneille Nangaa—former head of the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI)—maintain political leadership roles.
According to the document, military and political leaders of the AFC/M23 continue to receive direct instructions and support from the Rwandan government and its intelligence services. This external backing remains a critical factor in the movement’s operations.
Divergent visions for military expansion
The report underscores stark disagreements between Nangaa and Joseph Kabila‘s allies on one side and the military leadership on the other. While Nangaa and Kabila’s faction seeks to extend the AFC/M23’s influence toward Kinshasa, most military leaders oppose any expansion beyond North Kivu and South Kivu.
“Strategic differences over military operations and territorial control have created a rift within the AFC/M23,” the UN experts noted. “Some factions prioritize advancing toward the capital, while others focus on consolidating control over existing territories.”
Resource management and internal rivalries
Competition over access to and distribution of resources has further strained relations within the movement. Allegations of preferential treatment toward Tutsi officers and fighters have fueled resentment among certain factions.
Territorial divisions and military structure
The AFC/M23 has organized its occupied territories into three “defense zones,” each led by a different commander:
- General Baudoin Ngaruye oversees the first zone, covering Nyiragongo, Rutshuru, and Lubero.
- Brigadier General Justin Gacheri Musanga commands the second zone, which includes Masisi and Walikale.
- General Innocent Byamungu leads the third zone in South Kivu.
Estimated troop strength and recruitment
The report estimates the AFC/M23’s fighting force at approximately 30,000 combatants. This figure includes:
- The “hard core” of former members from the National Congress for the People’s Defense (CNDP) and the historic M23.
- Recruits mobilized since 2021, drawn from the diaspora and refugee camps in Rwanda.
- Thousands of defectors from the FARDC (Armed Forces of the DRC), the National Police, and the Wazalendo militias, who joined after the fall of Goma.
- Members of newly formed local defense and police units.
Regional implications and failed negotiations
The report comes at a time when the security and humanitarian situation in eastern DRC continues to deteriorate. Despite the Washington Agreement and multiple evaluation meetings, tensions persist between Kinshasa and Kigali. Each side interprets the agreement’s provisions differently, complicating its implementation nearly a year after its signing.
The Doha process, mediated by Qatar, has also failed to yield significant progress. Despite several rounds of discussions, Kinshasa and the AFC/M23—backed by Rwanda—remain far apart on key issues. The Montreux conference in Switzerland, intended to reinvigorate negotiations, did not produce the expected results.
These stalled diplomatic efforts, compounded by shifting priorities in the Middle East, have relegated the AFC/M23 crisis to the back burner, further delaying potential resolutions.
