The jihadist alliance JNIM, affiliated with al-Qaeda, has intensified its blockade on Bamako, Mali’s capital, pushing the economic stranglehold to unprecedented levels. Over the weekend, militants torched at least ten passenger buses along the critical Ségou-Bamako corridor, the primary supply route into the city from the east. Simultaneously, attacks on electrical infrastructure linked to the Manantali hydroelectric dam in the Kayes region left key facilities in ruins. Despite ongoing military operations, Malian forces have yet to break the siege strangling the nation’s economy.
Manantali: a strategic target in a war of attrition
The assault on Manantali is far from a random act. Operated under a tripartite agreement involving Mauritania and Senegal through the Organisation for the Development of the Senegal River (OMVS), the dam is a linchpin of Mali’s power grid. By disabling its transmission lines, JNIM isn’t just striking at security forces—it’s undermining the backbone of urban life, where electricity outages paralyze public services, businesses, and industries.
This offensive follows weeks of systematic strikes on fuel convoys entering from Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire. The militants aim to weaponize fuel shortages, betting on eroding public trust in the transitional government led by General Assimi Goïta. Bamako, once relatively insulated from the worst of the conflict, now sits at the heart of a grinding battle of endurance.
Army’s counter-moves and fragile supply respite
The Malian military reports continued ground and air operations across multiple fronts. Military escorts have escorted hundreds of fuel tankers into Bamako in recent days, offering temporary relief to gas stations under siege. Yet this logistical lifeline remains fragile: each convoy demands massive resources, and securing national highways over the long term appears out of reach for now.
The Armed Forces of Mali (FAMa) face a dual threat. In central and western regions, JNIM has stepped up ambushes and infrastructure sabotage. In the north, around Kidal, tensions remain locked in a tense stalemate, with fresh clashes likely against rebel factions of the Permanent Strategic Framework. Bamako is now navigating two distinct battlefields with dwindling manpower and matériel.
A regional crisis deepening
The blockade’s ripple effects extend beyond Mali’s borders. Neighboring economies—particularly those of Senegal, Mauritania, and Côte d’Ivoire—are feeling the pinch as West African trade corridors deteriorate. Slowing goods flows are straining ports in Dakar and Abidjan, where a significant share of traffic traditionally feeds the Sahelian hinterland. The Sahel States Confederation, uniting Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, has yet to forge a unified response to the jihadist-led economic warfare.
The attack on Manantali also raises urgent questions about shared installations under the OMVS. Further damage could directly disrupt electricity supply to Senegal and Mauritania, turning a Malian crisis into a regional emergency. External partners, from development lenders to military suppliers, now face a delicate balancing act: supporting Bamako’s sovereignty while safeguarding cross-border critical infrastructure.
The gap between the army’s operational claims and the reality of a capital under siege underscores the unparalleled nature of this conflict phase. JNIM’s ambitions have shifted—no longer content with territorial control, it seeks to suffocate the state itself.
