Cameroon is currently preparing one of its most significant external financing operations since its Eurobond issuance in January 2026. According to the monthly public debt report for June 2026, published by the Caisse Autonome d’Amortissement (CAA), the state intends to raise $690 million, equivalent to nearly 400 billion FCFA, through an ESG-component loan targeting international investors. This crucial operation, however, unfolds within a political landscape that could influence market perceptions, notably marked by the prolonged absence of President Paul Biya – a factor global investors traditionally integrate into their sovereign risk assessments.
The head of state has not been seen publicly since June 7, 2026, when authorities announced his departure for a “brief private stay” in Switzerland. This period now represents the longest absence observed since his ascension to power in 1982. Such a prolonged disappearance has reignited speculation within Cameroon regarding President Biya’s well-being.
Authorities continue to vehemently deny these circulating rumors. The Minister of Communication, René Emmanuel Sadi, has affirmed that “the President is in good health and working from Geneva, where he currently resides. Information claiming otherwise is pure fantasy and malicious manipulation aimed at destabilizing public opinion.”
Despite these official assurances, questions persist. Several opposition leaders have called for greater transparency regarding the President’s situation, some even alluding to an institutional vacuum. For international investors, these discussions primarily fuel the assessment of political risk, a criterion examined alongside macroeconomic fundamentals and budgetary indicators.
Rating agencies closely monitor political risk
Analyses from credit rating agencies reveal that this issue is not a recent development. In its report dated November 15, 2024, Fitch Ratings noted that “political instability will be a major factor influencing Cameroon’s sovereign rating. President Paul Biya’s age, his longevity in power since 1982, and the absence of a succession plan exacerbate the risk of a disorderly power transition.” The agency had at that time maintained its B rating with a negative outlook.
On May 9, 2025, Fitch reaffirmed this rating, citing “growing political tensions ahead of elections,” persistent fragility in budgetary governance, and ongoing shortcomings in public finance management. Moody’s presented a similar analysis in February 2024, stating that “political destabilization risks linked to the absence of a credible presidential succession plan” justified maintaining its Caa rating, while warning that “a chaotic transition could lead to debt payment delays.”
Standard & Poor’s also highlighted this vulnerability in its March 21, 2025 analysis. The agency recalled that “Cameroon has been led since 1982 by President Paul Biya, who, at 92, is expected to run for an eighth term in the presidential election of October 2025,” adding that the concentration of power and the lack of a historical precedent for presidential transition maintained a high level of uncertainty.
Nevertheless, the constitutional reform of April 2026 led Fitch to partially revise its assessment. In its latest evaluation, the agency believes that “the risk of a disorderly power transition in Cameroon has decreased, though not disappeared, following the April 2026 constitutional reform that created the position of vice-president. However, it is not yet known who will occupy this role, and risks persist given a fragmented sociopolitical environment.”
Markets have already demonstrated their sensitivity to such signals. In early October 2024, a rumor announcing Paul Biya’s passing triggered a decline in dollar-denominated Cameroonian sovereign bonds. These securities had recorded a third consecutive session of decline “due to uncertainty surrounding President Biya’s health.”
Market analysts have noted that President Biya has concentrated significant power, and a succession crisis could provoke substantial market volatility. Others suggest that political uncertainty might challenge the country’s ability to maintain its fiscal policy and honor its commitments to international creditors.
Assets to reassure investors
The political context, however, represents only one of many criteria considered by international investors. Growth prospects, the trajectory of public debt, the quality of the sovereign signature, and credit enhancement mechanisms designed to secure the operation also play a decisive role in their assessment.
To improve the risk profile of this issuance and enhance its attractiveness, Cameroon is leveraging several international partners. The operation is structured with the support of Matha Capital, acting as financial advisor, the African Development Bank (AfDB), the African Trade Insurance Agency (ATIDI), a multilateral institution specializing in trade and investment risk coverage, and the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC), a pan-African financial institution focused on infrastructure financing. The involvement of these partners aims to bolster the issuance’s credibility among investors, particularly those specializing in sustainable finance.
Robust economic fundamentals also present favorable arguments. In its latest rating, Fitch forecasts average growth of 3.7% in 2026 and 2027, anticipates a reduction in the public debt ratio to 40.2% of GDP by 2027, and highlights Cameroon’s successful mobilization of $750 million on international markets in January 2026 through a widely subscribed Eurobond.
Despite these strengths, the agency emphasizes that investors will continue to evaluate several factors, including developments in governance, public finance management, the clearance of arrears, the conclusion of a new program with the International Monetary Fund, and the political climate. With this new international issuance just months away, Paul Biya’s prolonged absence thus introduces an additional element likely to influence Cameroon’s sovereign risk perception. While not, by itself, undermining the country’s capacity to raise funds on international markets, it could impact the conditions under which investors agree to finance this operation.
