Cameroon‘s public investment budget execution rate experienced a dramatic collapse during the first quarter of 2026, marking a particularly turbulent start to the fiscal year. By the close of March, authorized investment expenditures amounted to merely 45 billion FCFA, a stark contrast to the 175.5 billion FCFA recorded during the same period a year prior. This represents a substantial decline of 130.5 billion FCFA in absolute terms, translating to a year-on-year contraction of 74.4%. Consequently, the utilization rate for investment credits allocated in the 2026 finance law plummeted to an exceptionally low 2.5%, a figure far below the typical slow pace even for an initial quarter.
PROBMIS IA: a technical shift that cripples the spending chain
The Ministry of Finance (Minfi) attributes a significant portion of this slowdown to the transition of budget management to a new IT platform, PROBMIS IA, which became operational at the start of the fiscal year. The Medium-Term Economic and Budgetary Programming Document (DPBMT) for 2027-2029, prepared ahead of the Budget Orientation Debate, explicitly acknowledges that technical challenges associated with this migration impeded the processing of financial transactions. Current expenditures fared only marginally better, with an execution rate of 14.7% by the end of March.
The impact has been particularly severe on investments funded through domestic resources, where the execution rate stands at a mere 0.3%. Investments backed by external resources performed slightly better at 5.2%, though this figure remains modest. Essentially, the spending pipeline became severely congested precisely when government agencies were expected to initiate their first commitments of the year. The Minfi has taken responsibility for this slower-than-usual start.
External financing: significant decline in disbursements
Compounding the technical friction is a less favorable environment for resource mobilization. Loans and grants effectively secured by the end of March totaled only 137.5 billion FCFA, compared to 327.6 billion FCFA a year earlier. This represents a substantial drop of 190.1 billion FCFA, marking a 58% year-on-year decrease. This downturn affects both project-specific loans and grants, as well as general budget support.
In closer detail, project loans attracted only 39.4 billion FCFA against a quarterly projection of 206.7 billion FCFA, resulting in a realization rate of just 19%. Grants barely reached 0.1 billion FCFA, falling far short of the anticipated 18.5 billion FCFA, while no budget support disbursements were recorded during the period. This combination of factors inevitably pressures externally funded investments, whose timelines remain dependent on the disbursement pace of international partners.
Overall, the budgetary resources mobilized by the Cameroonian state totaled 1,331.4 billion FCFA by the end of March, against an annual target of 8,683.9 billion FCFA. The realization rate stood at 15.3%, down from 19.6% a year ago. On the expenditure side, total authorized spending reached 1,547.1 billion FCFA, a 2.9% decrease compared to the 1,593.2 billion FCFA recorded the previous year. Current expenditures, excluding interest payments, also fell by 80.5 billion FCFA, settling at 566.1 billion FCFA.
A tangible risk for SND30’s flagship projects
The first quarter typically sees lower consumption of investment credits due to procurement lead times and the gradual ramp-up of project sites. However, the magnitude of this year’s observed decline far exceeds usual patterns. Should such a delay persist, it would place considerable strain on the timeline for infrastructure projects outlined in the National Development Strategy 2020-2030 (SND30).
Sectors heavily reliant on public procurement are on the front lines. Construction and public works, building materials, engineering, and transport industries are intimately linked to the state’s capacity to authorize capital expenditures within planned schedules. A sustained execution rate below forecasts would negatively impact the cash flow of awarded companies and the overall domestic economic activity.
The immediate challenge for Cameroonian authorities is to swiftly resolve the technical impediments of PROBMIS IA and accelerate the mobilization of external financing. This dual adjustment capability is crucial for recovering the ground lost over the past three months, with the achievement of 2026 objectives largely dependent on these efforts.
