Cameroon has made securing a new partnership with the International Monetary Fund (FMI) a cornerstone of its upcoming three-year budget plan. According to the Medium-Term Economic and Budgetary Programming Document for 2027-2029, submitted to Parliament by the Ministry of Finance as part of the budget orientation debate, Yaoundé expects to receive 300 billion FCFA in support tied to a new program with the Bretton Woods institution. This amount represents nearly 9.5% of the projected financing needs for 2027, estimated at 3,161.5 billion FCFA.
The stakes are high. The previous program, signed in 2021 and extended by one year, concluded in July 2025. Since then, Finance Minister Louis Paul Motazé has openly advocated for a new agreement, as reiterated during the cabinet meeting on October 30, 2025. While the Prime Minister has deferred the formal decision to open negotiations to the Presidency, the inclusion of this future support in the three-year framework signals that the executive is already treating this scenario as its baseline.
Financing shortfall tied to FMI program
Cameroon’s overall budget deficit for 2027 is projected at 1,018 billion FCFA, up from 808.5 billion FCFA expected in 2026. Nearly 30% of this deficit would be covered by support contingent on an agreement with the FMI. In addition, the budget includes 2,143.5 billion FCFA in financing costs and treasury obligations, primarily driven by debt repayments and the clearing of arrears. Financial debt alone accounts for 1,602.5 billion FCFA to be repaid.
To balance the books, the government plans to draw 866.7 billion FCFA from project loans, issue 400 billion FCFA in public securities, secure 250 billion FCFA in direct bank financing, and use 131.5 billion FCFA from its reserves at the Bank of Central African States (BEAC). Notably, an external borrowing of 1,000 billion FCFA is also envisaged for 2027, mirroring a similar operation planned for 2026. The document explicitly labels the absence of an FMI agreement as a “major risk” to medium-term fiscal sustainability.
Without a new program, the Treasury would need to fill the 300 billion FCFA gap through additional borrowing, increased domestic resource mobilization, or expenditure cuts. However, the Ministry of Finance highlights the rising cost of domestic financing, persistently high interest rates, and the still-limited depth of the CEMAC financial market. These factors constrain the ability to easily replace concessional support with commercial debt.
The catalytic role of FMI engagement
Beyond direct disbursements from Washington, an FMI agreement serves as a powerful signal to other major lenders, including the World Bank, the African Development Bank (BAD), the European Union, and bilateral partners. These creditors routinely link their support to the implementation of reforms and adherence to macroeconomic targets aligned with the program.
Between 2017 and 2025, Cameroon leveraged two programs to secure approximately 2,600 billion FCFA in budget support, combining FMI disbursements with co-financing from other partners. “We would lose these resources if a new agreement with the FMI is not concluded,” Minister Motazé warned. In parallel, Yaoundé aims to broaden its non-oil tax base, modernize revenue collection agencies, and streamline current expenditures to prioritize investment.
Regional hurdle before Washington’s green light
Cameroon’s pursuit remains closely tied to the broader dynamics of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC). Within the bloc, nationally supported FMI programs require regional assurances on monetary policy, reserve rebuilding, and alignment of fiscal trajectories among the six member states.
The review of common CEMAC policies, originally scheduled for December 2025, has been postponed. Authorities cite insufficient alignment of national budgetary policies with the regional strategy and incomplete agreements on reform-linked assurances. While necessary, this validation does not guarantee a bilateral accord between Cameroon and the FMI.
The timing adds pressure. By embedding 300 billion FCFA of conditional support into its 2027 financing plan, the Cameroonian government is tying part of its fiscal credibility to the outcome of negotiations. A prolonged delay could force greater reliance on commercial debt or spending cuts, undermining the country’s investment ambitions for the period.
