Market momentum at risk: Côte d’Ivoire’s cocoa exports face El Niño uncertainty
Côte d’Ivoire’s cocoa export market, which has shown remarkable strength with nearly 1 million tonnes already contracted for the 2026-27 harvest, may face disruptions due to the looming arrival of the El Niño weather phenomenon in July. Industry leaders and agricultural commodity traders are voicing concerns over potential climatic impacts on production and supply chains.
The Council of Coffee and Cocoa (CCC), headquartered in Abidjan, has taken proactive steps by increasing the premium on additional sales from zero to $135 per tonne above the futures price, a move aimed at managing stock levels amid growing demand. This decision underscores the tightening market conditions expected as the new harvest season kicks off on September 1st.
A senior CCC representative shared insights on the cautious approach being adopted: « We have already secured contracts for between 950,000 and 1 million tonnes for the upcoming season, but we’ve deliberately slowed the pace to prioritize prudence. »
Cocoa trading firms anticipate total exports of 1.1 to 1.2 million tonnes for the year, citing the CCC’s elevated premium as a reflection of market confidence. « The current market dynamics allow for a more assertive stance. The CCC no longer needs to lower its premium to secure deals, » explained a senior executive from a leading cocoa trading company.
El Niño’s potential impact on West African cocoa production
Despite this positive momentum, the arrival of El Niño threatens to disrupt West Africa’s cocoa belt, particularly in Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria. The weather pattern could trigger prolonged dry spells, jeopardizing harvests and destabilizing global supply.
Industry insiders warn that the most pressing challenges for 2027 may stem from aging cocoa plantations and rising costs of fertilizers and phytosanitary products. « El Niño isn’t the primary concern for production. The real threat lies in the shortage of fertilizers and crop protection supplies, » stated a director at an Abidjan-based export firm. Many Ivorian cocoa farms, plagued by aging trees and persistent diseases, remain highly vulnerable to external pressures.
