While Paris Saint-Germain, having clinched their fourteenth French championship title on Wednesday, prepares for a derby against Paris FC at Jean-Bouin, Sunday’s Ligue 1 finale on May 17 promises high drama. Numerous uncertainties persist, impacting both European qualification berths and the crucial relegation playoff position. We’ve analyzed the pivotal outcomes hanging in the balance for this ultimate matchday.

Lille holds its fate in hand

Behind Paris Saint-Germain and RC Lens, three clubs are fiercely competing for the third and final direct qualification spot for the Champions League: Lille (3rd, 61 points), Lyon (4th, 60 points), and Rennes (5th, 59 points).

Undefeated since February 1st, a remarkable run of thirteen matches, Lille’s footballers are uniquely positioned to secure this third-place finish. Should LOSC triumph against Auxerre, who are fighting to avoid the playoff, they cannot be overtaken. The northern club is already guaranteed at least fifth place in Ligue 1, which ensures a spot in the Europa League. Meanwhile, Lyon’s players are hoping for a Lille misstep as they host Lens. If Lyon defeats the Sang et Or, who may have their minds on their Coupe de France final against Nice next week, they could at minimum secure a Champions League preliminary round qualification.

Marseille-Rennes: a high-stakes encounter

The highly anticipated clash at the Vélodrome between Olympique Marseille and Rennes could prove costly for the losing side. If Stade Rennais avoids defeat, they are assured of a place in the Europa League, with a win potentially improving their European prospects. However, a loss could relegate them to the less prestigious – and less lucrative – Europa Conference League. Rennes, led by coach Franck Haise, recently suffered two significant setbacks against direct European rivals (Lille, 2-1, and Lyon, 4-2). Meanwhile, OM coach Habib Beye, who faces his former club after being dismissed in February, is under immense pressure.

Following a season filled with both sporting and off-field twists, the Marseille squad, who secured a lackluster victory against Le Havre after a disappointing defeat to Nantes, must aim higher than their current 6th place. Yet, a defeat could strip Marseille of everything: Monaco, sitting seventh and just two points behind OM, could leapfrog the Olympiens and push them out of European contention if they secure a victory against Strasbourg.

The relegation playoff spot: Le Havre, Auxerre, or Nice?

With Metz and Nantes already confirmed for relegation to Ligue 2 next season, three clubs are locked in a desperate struggle to avoid the dreaded relegation playoff spot: Le Havre (14th, 32 points), Auxerre (15th, 31 points), and Nice (16th, 31 points).

Despite a quick goal from Sofiane Diop (2-1), Auxerre managed to dominate Nice last week, earning themselves a temporary reprieve. However, fate has them traveling to face Lille in the final match. Paradoxically, current playoff occupant Nice appears well-positioned to secure their safety. The Nice footballers are set to host Metz, the league’s bottom-placed team, who haven’t registered a win since November. Le Havre, on the other hand, faces a challenging away fixture against Lorient (9th), a consistently strong club. The Normans could find themselves in the playoff spot if their two rivals for survival secure victories, marking the culmination of a prolonged slide: Le Havre hasn’t won a match since early February against Strasbourg.