The shifting battleground of Mali’s long-running conflict

Mali now faces a critical juncture as armed groups push beyond traditional strongholds, forcing a confrontation closer to Bamako. The conflict, rooted in the 2012 collapse of the state following a military coup, has evolved into a complex web of jihadist factions, Tuareg rebels, government forces, and external actors vying for influence. While the retaking of Kidal in late 2023 marked a symbolic victory for Bamako, it also reignited hostilities, with retaliatory attacks and fresh offensives reshaping the power dynamics.

Recent developments on the ground

The past two years have seen a marked escalation. In September 2024, the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (GSIM), an Al-Qaeda affiliate, claimed responsibility for strikes near Bamako’s Faladié gendarmerie school and military airport. By early 2026, coordinated attacks expanded across the country, reaching the capital’s outskirts. In response, Malian authorities imposed sweeping restrictions in June 2026, banning the sale and use of large motorcycles outside urban centers and designating no-go zones for civilians. These measures aim to curb mobile attacks, where armed groups strike and vanish before security forces can respond.

For civilians, the impact is immediate. Movement has become perilous, local economies are stifling, and humanitarian access is shrinking. The United Nations Human Rights Office warned in May 2026 of a rapid deterioration, citing civilian casualties, mass displacements, and food shortages following the latest wave of attacks.

Military stalemate and shifting alliances

The Malian junta’s strategy hinges on territorial control, but the terrain remains contested. Jihadist groups seek to undermine state authority by spreading insecurity across key routes, while Tuareg rebels press their claim for the Azawad region’s autonomy or independence. Though their goals differ, these factions often find common cause in challenging Bamako’s rule.

The junta’s narrative, amplified by accusations against Ukraine in 2024—allegedly supporting Tuareg rebels—has fueled a diplomatic rift. Ukraine denied the claims, and no credible evidence has emerged linking France to jihadist alliances. France, meanwhile, has scaled back its military presence in Mali since 2022, leaving a security vacuum that Bamako has sought to fill through partnerships with Russian security firms. This pivot has bolstered the junta’s sovereign rhetoric but done little to quash the insurgency.

Who benefits, who suffers?

The junta gains traction when framing the crisis as a fight against foreign conspiracies, allowing it to justify heightened security measures and consolidate domestic support. Yet this approach fails to address local grievances or the daily threats civilians face. For Tuareg rebels, territorial gains in the north and the withdrawal of international forces like MINUSMA have presented opportunities—but their tactical alliances with jihadists risk alienating communities they claim to represent. Meanwhile, jihadist groups thrive in the chaos, avoiding direct confrontation with state forces while destabilizing regions far beyond their original strongholds.

The civilian toll is undeniable. Northern residents endure relentless clashes, forced displacements, and the constant fear of reprisals. Bamako, once seen as a relative safe haven, has been shaken by attacks in 2024, while the 2026 crackdowns underscore the state’s defensive posture.

What to watch next

The trajectory of Mali’s crisis will depend on more than military outcomes. Diplomatic realignments—between Bamako, Kiev, Moscow, and West African capitals—will shape the conflict’s next phase. Whether this leads to fragile stabilization or a further escalation remains an open question, with Mali’s future hanging in the balance.