A collective analysis explores the global fallout of the Iran–United States conflict
A newly published collective work titled “Hormuz and the Invisible Fractures: the Price of a Distant War” examines the geopolitical, economic, and security consequences of the conflict pitting Iran, the United States, and Israel against each other, along with tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.
Featuring contributions from international experts including Abdelhak Bassou, Ferid Belhaj, Ian Lesser, Hafez Ghanem, Hinh T. Dinh, and Rida Lyammouri, the book looks at how the war affects different parts of the world, with a special focus on Morocco, Africa, and countries of the Global South.
According to the authors, the Hormuz crisis goes far beyond a regional conflict. It exposes the weaknesses of a globalised economy heavily reliant on energy, trade, and logistics flows passing through this strategic maritime chokepoint, through which a significant share of oil, gas, fertilisers, and international commerce travels.
One chapter, written by economist Hinh T. Dinh, analyses the impact of a 20% rise in oil prices on the economies of Morocco, Tunisia, and Egypt.
Using an input-output economic model, the study concludes that Morocco appears as the country most exposed to the consequences of an oil price shock linked to the Hormuz crisis. The analysis highlights vulnerabilities in several sectors, notably agriculture, construction, transport, and other activities that depend on energy products.
In contrast, Egypt would partly benefit from the price increase thanks to state oil revenues, while Tunisia would show a broadly balanced outcome despite significant disparities between sectors.
+ A challenge to the international order +
Beyond the economic aspects, several contributors view the 2026 war as a turning point in the evolution of the international order.
Ferid Belhaj argues the conflict illustrates the growing fragmentation of the global system and the weakening of traditional cooperation and deterrence mechanisms. Marcus Vinicius de Freitas, for his part, sees the emergence of a more multipolar world where conflicts are managed rather than resolved.
In another contribution, Ian Lesser analyses the war’s repercussions on transatlantic relations, arguing it has deepened differences between the United States and several European countries over the use of force and international crisis management.
The book also underscores the risks to African energy security, Sahel stability, and South American economies, while highlighting the growing role of strategic minerals in new global geopolitical dynamics.
This collective work contributes to the debate on the transformation of the international order and the strategies states will need to adopt in the face of crises that could durably disrupt supply chains, energy markets, and global geopolitical balances.
