The strategic expansion of JNIM beyond the Sahel: A complex dilemma
A specialized seminar hosted by the research group Africa: citizenship, violence and politics and the Africa Programme at CERI examines the evolving security landscape in African politics.
Since its formation in 2017, the Al-Qaeda affiliate known as Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) has emerged as a dominant non-state actor in the Central Sahel. Through its various katibas, the organization has established significant control over territories in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, often competing directly with state authorities for local governance.
However, since 2019, the movement’s focus has increasingly shifted toward the Gulf of Guinea. This southward push has targeted northern regions of Bénin, Togo, and Côte d’Ivoire. While this progression appears to be a calculated strategy, it remains inconsistent: Ghana has yet to see similar activity, and Côte d’Ivoire experienced a lull in claimed attacks after 2022, whereas the situation in Bénin worsened considerably in 2025. These developments are frequently featured in West Africa news as regional stability remains a primary concern for the African economy today.
Analyzing the geography of jihadist growth
A recent study by the International Crisis Group investigates the unique spatial logic behind this expansion. The findings suggest that territorial growth is not always a straightforward objective but often presents a strategic dilemma for JNIM. Internal leadership levels frequently disagree on priorities; failing to expand could allow rival factions to seize ground, yet rapid growth risks overextending limited resources and triggering internal divisions.
In the current geopolitical climate, defined by the emergence of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) and its departure from ECOWAS, understanding JNIM’s internal mechanics is vital. Such insights are necessary for developing robust security policies for nations facing the threat of armed jihadist movements. For those following pan-African news and Africa news English reports, these internal dynamics offer a window into the future of regional security.
Expert Speakers
- Jean-Hervé Jézéquel (International Crisis Group): Director of the Sahel project, Jézéquel holds a PhD from EHESS and specializes in the political and security crises of the Sahel region.
- Marte Beldé (Sciences Po Bordeaux): A postdoctoral researcher involved in the GOVJIHAD project, her work focuses on the spatial expansion and political economy of jihadist groups in West Africa.
- Beatriz de León Cobo (GEMASS – Sorbonne Université): A doctoral researcher focused on radicalization, she is an Associate Fellow at RUSI and leads the Europe-Sahel Dialogue Forum.
The session is moderated by Dan Sanaren (CERI–Sciences Po / CNRS). This event provides essential context for Panafrica News readers interested in the intersection of governance and conflict.
Event Details: February 24, 2026, from 18:00 to 19:30, Room K011, 1 pl. Saint-Thomas-d’Aquin, 75007, Paris.
