Recent waves of school abductions, village raids, and attacks on both churches and mosques have once again thrust Nigeria into the global spotlight. This cycle of brutality reached a new geopolitical peak when the United States conducted Christmas Day airstrikes against jihadist strongholds in the north, a move Washington described as an effort to defend vulnerable Christian populations.
In this high-stakes environment, some American officials have begun using the term “Christian genocide” to describe the situation.
However, the United Nations suggests that these high-profile incidents and the narratives surrounding them only tell part of the story. The reality is a nation gripped by pervasive insecurity, fueling one of the most significant yet neglected humanitarian disasters in Africa.
“Safety remains a primary hurdle for Nigeria,” explains Mohamed Malik Fall, the coordinator for UN agencies in the country. “It is no longer confined to a single territory; it is present almost everywhere.”
The growth of an insurgency
The roots of the current instability lie in the northeast, where an armed rebellion began in 2009. Initially led by Boko Haram and later by factions like the Islamic State West Africa Province, this nearly two-decade conflict has left the nation deeply scarred.
According to M. Fall, over two million individuals remain displaced, many of whom have spent their entire lives in camps without knowing any other reality.
Records indicate that the insurgency has claimed more than 40,000 lives, demolished thousands of educational and medical facilities, and cut off access to vital agricultural zones. Beyond the physical destruction, the UN official emphasizes that entire communities are severed from economic life, robbed of their livelihoods and their sense of dignity.
Widespread banditry and localized disputes
Over time, the long-standing war has been joined by more fragmented forms of violence. In the northwest, states like Zamfara, Katsina, and Sokoto are battling what officials term “banditry”—criminal syndicates that engage in looting, kidnapping, and extortion. This has led to the abandonment of entire villages, with roughly one million people displaced in the northwest alone.
In the Middle Belt, clashes over land between farmers and herders—intensified by environmental changes and population growth—have triggered further displacement. Meanwhile, the south faces ongoing tensions from separatist movements and sabotage related to oil production.
Consequently, with approximately 3.5 million people forced from their homes, Nigeria accounts for nearly 10% of all displaced persons on the African continent.
Blind violence rather than targeted genocide
The recent targeting of Christian institutions has reignited a fierce international debate. In January, over 160 people were kidnapped during Sunday services in Kaduna State. This followed attacks in the northwest that left dozens dead and saw students targeted near a school in Papiri.
These events echo the 2014 Chibok tragedy in Borno State, where 276 schoolgirls were abducted by Boko Haram. While some U.S. officials now claim a “Christian genocide” is occurring, the United Nations remains cautious, citing a lack of evidence for deliberate, singular targeting based on faith.
“I would not characterize this violence as the systematic persecution of one religious group,” says Mohamed Malik Fall. He points out that the vast majority of the 40,000 victims of the insurgency have been Muslims, often killed inside their own mosques.
He recalls a Christmas Eve attack in Maiduguri that struck a location between a mosque and a market, claiming the lives of Muslim worshippers. “Insecurity is blind to religion and ethnicity,” he asserts, warning that biased narratives risk deepening social divisions rather than fostering unity.
A massive crisis with dwindling support
Beneath the security crisis lies a staggering humanitarian emergency. In the northeast alone, 7.2 million people require aid, with 6 million in critical condition. Food security has become a primary concern, with forecasts suggesting 36 million people could face hunger in the coming months. Over 3.5 million children under five are at risk of acute malnutrition, which M. Fall warns will have long-term effects on their cognitive and physical development.
These issues are compounded by climate shocks—such as floods and droughts—and outbreaks of diseases like cholera. Despite the rising need, international funding has plummeted. From a billion-dollar annual response plan a few years ago, contributions dropped to $262 million last year, and may fall below $200 million this year.
Economic potential vs. humanitarian reality
The central irony of the Nigeria situation is that such a massive crisis exists within one of Africa‘s largest economies. “Nigeria is not Sudan or Somalia,” M. Fall points out. “It is a country with resources, and the government must take the lead in the humanitarian response.”
The UN aims to transition leadership of aid efforts to federal and state authorities while urging international donors not to turn away. The goal is to move from dependency to opportunity. As M. Fall concludes, “People would rather have economic opportunities than rely on handouts. It is better to teach someone to fish than to simply give them one.”
