While mathematically possible, for Arsenal to close the gap at the top, the Gunners would need to lose both of their remaining fixtures against Burnley and Crystal Palace, while Manchester City must also secure victories over Bournemouth and Aston Villa. Such a sequence of results would require an improbable combination of outcomes.
City’s home fortress remains unbreakable
The Etihad Stadium has been a fortress for Manchester City this season. Since Pep Guardiola took charge, the club has remained unbeaten in the last eight Premier League meetings against Crystal Palace, dating back to October 2021. The Citizens have also been unbeaten at home since August, when a defeat to Tottenham Hotspur ended a run of 13 consecutive league victories at their fortress. Notably, City have opened the scoring in every subsequent home league match this season.
City’s attacking dominance is evident, with 38 goals scored in the first half this season—the highest tally in the league—and just nine conceded before halftime, the fewest in the competition. Additionally, the club has gone unbeaten in their last 23 evening fixtures, though five of their eight games played after 19:00 this year have ended in draws.
Haaland and Doku set to exploit Palace’s defense
Erling Haaland has a remarkable record against Crystal Palace, having scored in each of his five Premier League appearances for City against them. Only Mohamed Salah and Raheem Sterling have matched this feat, achieving six consecutive goals against Bournemouth.
Jérémy Doku is another player to watch, with a surge in form that sees him contributing goals and assists in six of his last six matches—five goals and two assists—compared to just one goal and six assists in his previous 24 appearances for the club.
Ismaila Sarr has been Palace’s most reliable source of goals, netting nine times in his last ten starts, and his 20 league goals this season mark the highest tally for a Palace player since Glenn Murray’s 2012/13 campaign. Jean-Philippe Mateta could also make history, needing just one more goal to become only the second Palace player after Wilfried Zaha to reach 50 Premier League goals for the club. Notably, 17 of his 49 goals came away from Selhurst Park, with only two of his 11 goals this season scored outside South London.
Palace’s away resilience could be their best weapon
Crystal Palace have shown they can trouble City on their travels, scoring twice in each of their last four away trips to the Etihad, though they managed just one victory from those encounters (1 win, 1 draw, 2 losses). With only City and Arsenal boasting more away wins this season, Palace’s ability to compete away from home will be crucial.
The Eagles will need to be at their best to stay in contention. City not only lead the Premier League in goals scored (72) but also dominate in total passes (20,582) and pass accuracy (89%). They rank second in shots attempted (549), shots on target (193), and conversion rate (18%). Marc Guehi, Palace’s former captain, has made the most passes for City this season with 2,126.
In stark contrast, Palace rank lowest in the league for pass accuracy (78%) and second-worst conversion rate (13%). Expect goals in the final 15 minutes before halftime, a period where City score most (20) and Palace concede the most (17). City have lost only once after taking the lead this season, underlining the importance of early pressure for Palace.
Injury updates: key absentees for both sides
Crystal Palace will be without Cheick Doucouré and Eddie Nketiah, while Evann Guessand and Borna Sosa face late fitness tests. Manchester City will miss Rodri and Josko Gvardiol, with Abdukodir Khusanov also undergoing a late assessment.
