Ten months after being toppled by the military, Umaro Sissoco Embaló is preparing a comeback in Guinea-Bissau. The former president, now in exile, has declared his candidacy for the presidential election scheduled for December 6, 2026. This is a pivotal moment that could reshape the country’s political trajectory, especially as the disputed 2025 vote remains unresolved and the army continues to wield decisive influence.
A breakthrough announcement that changes the game
The declaration carries symbolic weight and represents a major political challenge. Embaló, who was ousted on November 26, 2025, in a military coup, has confirmed he intends to return to Guinea-Bissau and run for the presidency again. His return is planned for October 4. The former head of state aims to re-enter the electoral arena less than a year after being removed from power.
“I will be a candidate,” he said. The December 6 vote is officially meant to end the military transition and restore an elected civilian government. Yet beneath this electoral prospect lies a more sensitive question: under what conditions can Embaló actually compete, and what role will he play in a political landscape deeply transformed since his overthrow?
The coup that followed a fiercely contested election
To grasp this candidacy, one must go back to November 26, 2025. Three days earlier, Bissau-Guineans had voted in a highly disputed presidential and legislative election. Embaló, running for re-election, and his main rival, Fernando Dias, both claimed victory.
On November 26, as the electoral commission was due to publish initial provisional results the next day, soldiers seized control of state institutions. Embaló was arrested, and the electoral process was suspended. General Horta N’Tam, then chief of staff and a close ally of Embaló, was subsequently installed as transitional president.
The junta justified its intervention as necessary to preserve national security and prevent an alleged destabilization plot involving, it claimed, actors linked to drug trafficking. However, no public evidence has independently substantiated this accusation.
The coup also obliterated the electoral process. The electoral commission stated that tally sheets, computers, and servers containing vote data were seized or destroyed. As a result, it is now impossible to officially know the outcome of the November 2025 presidential election.
This absence of results continues to fuel controversy. Embaló’s opponents have accused him of having orchestrated or facilitated the coup himself to prevent the release of results that would have been unfavorable to him. This hypothesis has been raised by several observers but has never been established as fact. The close ties between Embaló and General Horta N’Tam have nonetheless fed suspicions.
A comeback in a transformed political system
In ten months, Guinea-Bissau has changed profoundly. The junta organized a constitutional referendum on August 30, 2026, which, according to provisional results, approved a new constitution significantly strengthening presidential powers. The president will now be able to appoint and dismiss the prime minister and government and, under certain circumstances, dissolve parliament.
This reform comes just months before the presidential election. The opposition, notably the PAIGC, had called for a boycott of the referendum, denouncing a process held under military control. The vote was nevertheless declared approved with about 70% of ballots cast.
Another potentially decisive factor for Embaló: the new constitution requires presidential candidates to have resided continuously in the country for the five years preceding the election. It also imposes a deposit of 50 million CFA francs. These new rules could therefore become a major issue for the former president’s candidacy, given his exile since being overthrown.
Can Embaló truly reclaim power?
The question now is less about his return than about his ability to turn it into an electoral victory. Several factors pull in different directions.
On one hand, Embaló retains significant political networks. His former party, Madem G15, remains a presence in the political landscape, while several figures from his entourage continued to hold responsibilities during the transition. The military leadership itself is headed by a former close associate, even though the junta now claims to be conducting an independent transition.
On the other hand, his image is deeply controversial. His opponents accuse him of having weakened democratic institutions during his term and of governing amid repeated tensions with parliament and the opposition. Before the 2025 coup, the country had already experienced several political-military crises.
Above all, a crucial indicator is missing: the result of the November 2025 presidential election. With no official results published, it is impossible to assert that Embaló had a majority at the time or, conversely, that he was on the verge of losing. The conflicting victory claims made by Embaló and Fernando Dias at the time do not constitute a reliable electoral measure.
The only certainty is that Embaló’s announced return opens a new phase of uncertainty. Its success will depend notably on his eligibility under the new constitutional rules, the actual organization of the vote, the opposition’s ability to regroup, and the army’s stance.
December 6 could thus become a decisive moment for Guinea-Bissau. But before knowing whether Umaro Sissoco Embaló can reclaim the presidency, a more fundamental question remains: will the country this time manage to hold an election whose results are actually published and recognized by all political actors?
After decades of coups, institutional crises, and contested votes, that is probably where the true significance of the December election will be determined.
