Guinea-Bissau’s military leadership has launched a sweeping disarmament campaign across Bissau, turning a security operation into a defining moment ahead of the December 6 presidential election. Security forces are searching containers and homes for weapons and ammunition, targeting caches allegedly linked to armed elements associated with former president Umaro Sissoco Embaló. The timing is critical: Embaló, living in exile in Morocco, has declared he will return and run, while the junta refuses to let him back in, citing security concerns. What unfolds in the coming weeks will determine whether this transition holds — or unravels.
Weapons searches intensify across the capital
Security forces are combing through multiple neighborhoods in Bissau, inspecting shipping containers and residential buildings for hidden weapons and ammunition. The operation aims to disarm groups deemed capable of destabilizing the capital.
Military authorities say they intend to regain control of weapons circulating outside official channels. This campaign unfolds in a country where the army has played a dominant role in political crises for decades, with coups repeatedly derailing democratic processes.
Available information suggests some of the sought-after weapons are attributed to elements tied to former president Umaro Sissoco Embaló. That allegation is politically explosive and would require solid evidence establishing the weapons’ origin and the identity of those holding them.
Embaló insists on returning and running
Behind the security operations lies a major political deadline: the presidential election scheduled for December 6, 2026. After the coup that ousted him in November 2025, Umaro Sissoco Embaló has been living in exile in Morocco.
Yet the former president has announced his intention to return to Guinea-Bissau and seek the highest office again. In late September, he stated he would be a candidate in the presidential race.
His return was initially planned for October 4. But the military hierarchy decided to block his entry, asserting that the necessary security conditions for his return are not met and invoking the protection of public order and social stability.
Embaló, for his part, maintains his determination to take part in the vote and demands that his candidacy be reviewed by judicial authorities impartially and independently.
A candidacy that unsettles the military transition
The confrontation between the former president and the new authorities is no longer limited to the question of his return. It could now play out directly on the electoral battlefield.
The junta has committed to holding elections aimed at restoring civilian rule. The presidential and legislative votes are officially set for December 6.
But Embaló’s case puts the military in a delicate position. How can they organize an election meant to mark the end of the transition while preventing the former president, ousted by the coup, from returning to campaign?
For now, authorities have officially justified his return ban on security grounds. It would therefore be premature to speak of a candidacy legally rejected by the junta. However, his physical return to the country is indeed blocked by military authorities, which concretely undermines his ability to campaign on the ground.
Weapons as both a security and political issue
It is in this context that the seizure operations take on an additional dimension. By searching for weapons potentially linked to networks close to the former power, the junta says it wants to prevent any threat to public safety.
But these operations come at the precise moment when political rivalry over the presidential election is intensifying. The question will be whether the disarmament is solely a security measure or whether it will also affect the political balance of power before the vote.
Military authorities will need to demonstrate that the searches and seizures follow transparent procedures and are not being used to sideline certain political opponents.
A transition under scrutiny
The junta already pushed through a new Constitution in August following a referendum strongly contested by parts of the opposition and civil society. The new text notably strengthens presidential powers.
In this climate, the December 6 presidential election represents a crucial moment for the country’s institutional future. Embaló’s potential return, his candidacy, and the conditions under which other contenders can campaign will be closely watched.
In Bissau, the military continues to search, seize, and disarm. But behind the inspected containers and the sought-after weapons, a broader battle is taking shape: the fight for control of the transition and the terms under which Guinea-Bissau will — or will not — return to civilian rule.
With two months to go before the vote, the standoff between the junta and Umaro Sissoco Embaló is only beginning.
